Post quake, fears of food deficit
KATHMANDU, MAY 02 -
Nepal could face increased food insecurity in the wake of the Great Earthquake
which will adversely hit summer crop plantation as well as winter harvests.
The quake struck
when farmers were preparing for corn and wheat harvests and paddy plantation
that begins from May-end.
The Food and
Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations reckons that the
quake--the country’s biggest in 80 years--has left some 3.5 million people in
need of food assistance.
It said some $8
million is urgently needed to help disaster-struck farmers rapidly recover lost
agricultural inputs and resume preparations for the imminent paddy sowing
season.
Farmers who miss
the planting season that is expected to start late May onwards will be unable
to harvest rice--the country’s staple--again until late 2016.
The UN food agency
said that although damage to the agriculture sector in Nepal has not yet been
assessed, affected families have likely lost livestock, crops, food stocks and
valuable agricultural inputs.
“As the earthquake has hit the country before the start
of the main paddy growing season, prompt and effective rehabilitation of
affected farmers would be a determining factor on food production,” said
economist Madan Dahal. “Farmers will be ready to go to the field only if they
are effectively rehabilitated.” “As the monsoon is the key for the rain-fed
economy like ours,” Dahal said, “a slight variation in the amount and the
timing of the monsoon would have serious impact on the overall food production
in the country.”
He added that the
breakdown in the supply of seeds and fertiliser inputs will also affect
planting in the main May-to-September season. A late monsoon along with
untimely rain is set to hit the paddy yield this fiscal, with the Agriculture
Ministry estimating paddy output to drop 5.1 percent to 4.78 million tonnes.
Nepal produced 258,435 tonnes less paddy compared to last year largely due to a
late monsoon and untimely rainfall. The country has already imported food
grains worth Rs 22.48 billion, up 33 percent, in the first eight months of the
current fiscal year.
Before the earthquake hit, the FAO estimated Nepal’s wheat
production in 2015 at 1.8 million tones--some 5 percent below last year’s
record harvest. But crop damage and farmers’ inability to harvest in earthquake -affected areas are likely to
adversely hit this forecast.
In addition,
disruption of planting operations for paddy and maize may severely reduce the
planted area for these crops in the most affected districts. “There is a
critical window of opportunity to help crop producers plant in time in order to
have paddy harvest this year and regain their self-sufficiency,” said Somsak
Pipoppinyo, FAO Representative in Nepal.
As the country is
not able to ensure jobs to youth, Dahal said there could be a mass migration of
Nepalis abroad seeking jobs. “Such migration pattern is ultimately felt on the
farm sector.”
Former Finance
Secretary Rameshore Khanal, however, said the earthquake would not have a significant impact on
the farm sector as the major food producing district in Tarai has not been
affected much. “But the earthquake impact would be significant in other
sectors like service and manufacturing,” he said.
The Asian
Development Bank’s initial assessment of the economic impact of the earthquake too stated that service sector would
be hit.
The production
activities, especially in the service sector, have been severely disrupted,
mainly due to damage to physical infrastructure and distribution networks.
According to the
ADB, travel and tourism is likely to be badly hit with most key hotels shutting
down for next few weeks to examine the structural integrity of their buildings.
“The impact of the likely drop in tourism will be significant,” ADB said.
The regional lender
has projected Nepal’s economic growth to be around 4.2 percent from its earlier
projection of 4.6 percent. The growth, however, will be much lower, if the
supply-side disruptions intensify in the coming weeks.
“Then the growth
forecast may be further downgraded to somewhere between 3 to 3.5 percent,” said
the ADB assessment. It estimates inflation would be on higher side, due to
supply side constraints following the earthquake . Most importantly, food inflation is
expected to remain in double digits as a result of high prices of cereal grains
and vegetables.
source : ekantipur
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